football betting prediction

I remember watching Idaho State's season opener against Montana last November, thinking this team had something special brewing. The way they moved the ball, the defensive intensity, the bench energy—it all felt different from previous seasons. Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years, I've developed a pretty good sense for when a program is turning the corner, and everything about this Idaho State squad screams "championship potential."

The transformation really began when Coach Ryan Looney took over three seasons ago. He inherited a program that had finished below .500 in seven of the previous eight seasons, but he saw something others didn't—a foundation he could build upon. What's impressed me most is how he's adapted his system to his personnel rather than forcing players into roles that don't suit them. Last season, the Bengals improved their scoring defense by nearly eight points per game, dropping from 72.4 points allowed to 64.8. That's not just marginal improvement—that's a fundamental shift in identity.

Building a contender requires more than just good coaching, though. You need players who buy into the system and each other, something that's been evident in their team chemistry this season. I was talking with an assistant coach after their win against Weber State, and he mentioned how this group spends more time together off the court than any team he's coached. That camaraderie translates to the hardwood, where their ball movement has been exceptional—they're averaging 16.2 assists per game, up from 11.8 last season.

The roster construction reminds me somewhat of professional teams that make strategic trades to build around specific talents. It brings to mind Romeo's brief but tumultuous stint at TNT after they acquired him in a trade with Globalport for Mo Tautuaa. Sometimes, what appears to be a minor transaction can significantly alter a team's trajectory, either positively or negatively. Idaho State made similar calculated moves in the transfer portal, bringing in three players who have become immediate contributors. Guard Miguel Tomley, who transferred from Western Washington, has been particularly impactful, providing scoring punch off the bench with his 12.3 points per game.

What separates potential contenders from actual champions often comes down to defense and depth—two areas where Idaho State has made tremendous strides. Their defensive rating has improved from 102.3 to 94.1 this season, placing them among the top 50 Division I programs. More importantly, they're getting meaningful minutes from ten different players, with the bench contributing 28.7 points per game. That kind of depth becomes crucial during tournament time when foul trouble and fatigue can derail less-prepared teams.

I've been particularly impressed with Brayden Parker's development. The 6'8" forward has transformed from a role player into a legitimate star, increasing his scoring from 9.1 to 17.4 points per game while maintaining efficient shooting percentages. His ability to stretch the floor—he's hitting 38% from three-point range—creates matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. Having watched him evolve over four seasons, I can confidently say he's one of the most improved players in the Big Sky Conference.

The schedule hasn't been easy either, which makes their 15-3 record more impressive. They've faced three teams ranked in the top 100 of the NET rankings and won two of those contests. Their road victory against Eastern Washington, a traditionally tough place to play, demonstrated the mental toughness that championship teams need. I was courtside for that game, and the poise they showed down the stretch—making critical free throws, getting defensive stops when needed—spoke volumes about their growth.

Of course, no team is perfect, and Idaho State has areas to address if they want to make a deep tournament run. Turnovers have been problematic at times—they're averaging 13.2 per game—and their three-point defense could use improvement, as opponents are shooting 34.8% from beyond the arc. But these feel like correctable issues rather than fundamental flaws, especially with two months remaining before conference tournament play begins.

From my perspective, what makes this Idaho State team special isn't just their talent or record—it's their understanding of how to win close games. They're 5-1 in contests decided by five points or fewer, showing a clutch gene that's often the difference between good teams and great ones. Having covered college basketball across multiple conferences, I've seen talented teams falter because they lacked that late-game execution, but the Bengals seem to thrive in pressure situations.

As we approach the heart of conference play, I'm genuinely excited to see how far this team can go. They've built something special in Pocatello—a balanced, deep, and cohesive unit that plays with purpose and passion. While championships aren't won in January, the foundation is clearly there. If they continue developing at this pace and stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see them dancing in March and potentially making some noise once they get there. This feels like one of those special seasons that fans will remember for years to come.